Episode 2: How is the situation handled and how does France manage the situation on its side ?
Warning : The informations named here can change and can have changed at the publication of this article.
If you have read the previous article, you have understood that the tensions go back several years. Today, the situation is mixed. Russia continues to put pressure on NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) with, according to American intelligence, 100,000 (exhaustive figure) soldiers and equipment at the border. Even if the veracity of these figures remains to be proven, it is impossible to deny the deployment of troops on the Ukrainian borders. Moreover, a large number of videos, usually published on twitter, show convoys of vehicles, trains etc... heading towards the current front line in Donbass, where pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian separatists are fighting. For several days, France has been acting as a mediator between the two superpowers through meetings, in Geneva for example. The voice of diplomacy remains for the moment privileged, even if Vladimir Putin continues to put pressure. Russia is asking for a ban on Ukraine's membership of the EU and NATO, but also for the withdrawal of NATO troops from the Russian border. A request refused by the US, to the great regret of Russia. Tensions are rising, at the border, several incidents have taken place, including shelling, as well as the partial destruction of an oil and gas pipeline. Two Ukrainian soldiers were reportedly killed yesterday (19 February), as well as civilians. (not confirmed).
What is France's obligation? Should it intervene and as a civilian what do we risk?
First of all, France has strictly no obligation to intervene with Ukraine. Indeed, as Ukraine is not part of any military alliance (EU, NATO), France is not obliged to defend another nation. Despite a request in 2008 from Ukraine to join NATO, it was not successful. In 2020, the country is included in the "new opportunity" program that could integrate the country into NATO, and possibly the EU. However, most EU countries seem to be willing to defend Ukraine.
As civilians we are currently at little risk. However in case of war, and lack of French soldiers, a general mobilization could take place. But we remain far from this situation.
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